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February 13, 2006

The Gamer’s Quagmire #11: How To Confuse an Analyst

Filed under: The Gamer's Quagmire — crayfish @ 11:49 am

The Gamer’s Quagmire: 11th Edition
- Jamison DeLorenzo

Gaming, humor, and insanity in harmony

We are now two months into the next generation of consoles thanks to Microsoft’s aggressive strategy. The 360 created a lot of fanfare for its launch as it needed to. Sega knew that in order to make an impact with its Dreamcast it had to launch early, have a bunch of great games available, and then maintain a serviceable console. This was the direction chosen for the 360, and after two months what have gamers seen? Project Gotham Racing 3, Dead or Alive 4, and Call of Duty 2 are the only titles that exude any mass appeal. Do you think that Sony is nervous yet?

Sony is finally making statements that the PS3 will be launched here in the United States by Christmas, so the 360 will have about one year to make its statement before the real square-off begins. Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo will all be producing games for their latest product. We are just starting to see what all the massive hype was about last year. Quite naturally we now must listen to what people think about who is going to be this generation’s gaming champion.

It does pay to be blissfully ignorant on consoles and just wait for the systems to come out, but being a person who is dying to know when to budget in a new television to take advantage of the new games and which platform will have the intriguing games I had to spend time reading about what Sony’s plans are. We’ll get to Nintendo soon enough. About the only thing we know for certain now is what each console is going to be technically capable of. This is where Sony and Microsoft seem to be doing their biggest battle.

Surely this is not surprising considering Microsoft’s initial entrant into the gaming universe. The only reason the XBox did as well as it did was because of its technically superior system. Of course when you launch well after the PS2 you would almost insist that it be a more capable machine… otherwise why launch in the first place? The PS2/XBox generation showed us that a console could be for more than gaming- it could be for watching movies too. The original PlayStation started getting people thinking about turning the console into a multimedia center. It was the first console to have games in CD format instead of cartridge. Now we could use our console to play our music CD’s!

Considering now that cellular phones can be used as an address book, to surf the web, to make calls, for playing games, for cooking breakfast and re-tarring a roof consoles almost have to be a far more advanced machine. Why did the Gamecube flounder? Among the reasons was its design- who wants a console which requires these really small discs? The whole concept of a console with a handle for carrying was extremely scary for a lot of people. People want their consoles to be for more than just gaming now because in the long run it saves them money.

(Incidentally, the Gamecube should be exhibit A of how culture can play a big role in where a console will succeed. Nintendo, housed in Japan, produced a small console that did not penetrate the U.S. market nearly as well as it did in Japan. Microsoft, housed in the U.S., produced a large console that did not penetrate the Japanese market nearly as well as it did here. It really is that simple, yet people still like arguing about it.)

When business magazines start talking about the PS3 being too technologically complicated I get quite flustered. What does this mean exactly? This new consoles going to be the first to showcase a high-definition DVD player which Sony itself has developed. Sony has more riding on the PS3 than just gaming dominance- they need their Blu-ray technology to succeed considering how much money they have invested in it. Analysts are falling in love with using the PSX as a reason why they are skeptical of Sony this time around due to all of the parallels between that machine and the PS3.

All I have to ask is- so what? Did people ask questions when the PS2 offered a DVD player? Did people get nervous when Microsoft added a hard drive to the console? No, these machines flew off of the shelves. These machines sold because they were cheap, portable, and had multiple uses. The XBox was a great console for some people who didn’t want a gaming device but wanted a cheap computer or server. I’m sorry, but the PSX failed because nobody really ever understood what it was and it retailed at over $800.

(And if you don’t even know what I’m talking about that should show you how badly that product failed.)

Nobody is going to walk into an electronics store, see an XBox 360 or PS3 and care about every last little function of the console. People will ask what games it can play and stop caring after that. Gamers will know what they want before going into the store and parents will know what games their kids are asking them to get. Are there any other parts to the equation that I’m missing here? Okay, so it can play movies. Oh, it can stream music through the house too. If anything that’s a cost savings for those buying $400+ devices for their living room. I think that’s a good thing.

Still, I cannot tell you what people will think of the new PS3. The 360 has been doing well so far but it has not met the earliest of expectations. There are not a lot of good games out there for it right now, and there may not be a lot of fervor that gets people interested in the console until a big game comes out for it. A lot of people just sit back and start invoking Halo 3 as the big game, but you have to remember that every big gaming franchise starts with the first big hit. Halo was a surprise smash hit. Battlefield was a surprise hit. The same goes for Knights of the Old Republic, Prince of Persia, Splinter Cell, Devil May Cry, and Katamari. It does help when a sequel in a big gaming franchise is released (a concept eluding Square at the present time), but you need good gaming developers to create the next big franchise hit for you.

No matter how many different ways you try to construct the argument, the console wars will be won or lost with the games and not with the technology. Sure, Nintendo is definitely taking a big gamble by ignoring HD technology with their next offering, but we know they are still focusing on creating a great gaming experience. Sony and Microsoft want to give gamers a powerful console that excels at more than gaming and everyone who would be interested in purchasing a console understands that. They also know that they need to produce games that people will want to play if they want to avoid the fate of the Gamecube.

The terms PlayStation, XBox, and Nintendo are all synonymous with gaming. Both Microsoft and Sony’s consoles have the same capabilities and nobody complained about how they were being marketed. If you think about it the previous generation of consoles offered everything that these consoles do except HD-quality video. So please do yourself a favor and ignore market research from business magazines on gaming consoles. Just like politicians, they just don’t understand gaming yet.


This article is written and copyrighted by Jamison DeLorenzo and all thoughts are solely his and do not necessarily represent anyone else’s including anyone else at this site. This is a weekly article which deals with anything and almost everything gaming. Feel free to post comments or e-mail. Thanks for reading.

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